Monthly Archives: February 2016

Saudi Barbaria, Stop-Loss, Olof Palme | Twitter

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@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria will soon be bankrupt:its citizens will dress the same as everyone else &they will take orders from W https://twitter.com/Brian_Whit/status/703843602384859136   Permalink 11:07 AM – 28 Feb 2016

@GMWatch Difference between #Bernie and #Shillary pic.twitter.com/x57JarRiT3 Permalink 10:17 AM – 28 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The minute you have a stop-loss, the statistical properties of the portfolio become irrelevant. pic.twitter.com/2o2gvKEkwN Permalink 5:38 AM – 28 Feb 2016

@nntaleb 1) sophistication 2) determination 3) authenticity 4) risk taking @alxpr1c3 Permalink 5:24 AM – 28 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Would you get in a cab driven by a diabetic post-hedonistic Saudi prince? @saadaldeeb Permalink 4:51 AM – 28 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Standing an economic belief on its head. pic.twitter.com/DaDFbQsgCN Permalink 4:43 AM – 28 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Honor Olof Palme, a man who stood for, and died for, peace. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 4:11 AM – 28 Feb 2016

@nntaleb This is not forecasting but simply ACCOUNTING. @saadaldeeb Permalink 3:26 AM – 28 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Nothing worse than a nerd trying to not look nerdy. Permalink 3:46 PM – 27 Feb 2016

@nntaleb They had $100 bn deficit with oil prices on average 50% higher. Do you own a calculator? @sleuthstock @esmail_afsah @AlArabiya_Eng Permalink 1:29 PM – 27 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Simple arithmetic is not “rumors”: $ depletion of reserves per month divided by total @esmail_afsah @AlArabiya_Eng Permalink 1:24 PM – 27 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Saudi boy, how much do you deadlift? @ksa12226 @sebinsua Permalink 12:03 PM – 27 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Before oil, nobody in the civilized world has much interest in deserts & roaming & looting nomads. https://twitter.com/ksa12226/status/703668359473319936   Permalink 11:52 AM – 27 Feb 2016

@johnrobb NeoCons? >> 0.5% of the electorate at most. All employed by the government, think tanks, or super PACs. https://twitter.com/NinaByzantina/status/703616939445235713   Permalink 8:28 AM – 27 Feb 2016

@nntaleb In other words, Saudi citizens are within 6-9 years of having to become construction workers in the Levantine states & elsewhere. Permalink 6:24 AM – 27 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The real reason is that Saudi Arabia is running out of money: unless oil rallies, it wd deplete its reserves in~5y https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/701893005322510337   Permalink 6:20 AM – 27 Feb 2016

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com/aVbkLhSvvd Permalink 3:05 AM – 27 Feb 2016

@LieraMarco Dopo 40 ore con le teste piu’ lucide del mondo nella gestione dei rischi questo pezzo di carta ha molta sostanza pic.twitter.com/8EviS0Izue Permalink 4:39 PM – 26 Feb 2016

Real World Risk Certificate, Borjana, Zari, Markowicz, Stoyan Stoyanov, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Apple pen | Twitter

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@nntaleb As if the rebels never killed civilians? What are you drinking? @janinedigi Permalink 3:34 PM – 26 Feb 2016

@LieraMarco “When you remove religion, people start believing in all kinds of bullshit, such as economics” @nntaleb #RWRI Permalink 12:34 PM – 26 Feb 2016

@nntaleb OK I just bought the Apple pen (and the pro) as a result of the comments. Thanks! Permalink 10:29 AM – 26 Feb 2016

@domineefh during 5 days with @nntaleb & #RWRI i’ve learned more usable staff and beautiful math than during 5+ years at the university Permalink 5:13 AM – 26 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Typing is a Procrustean bed compared to writing longhand. @OneTopQuark Permalink 2:35 AM – 26 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Friends, is there an application and a tablet to email longhand? #LindyEffect predicts a reversion to handwriting (technology adapts to us) Permalink 2:24 AM – 26 Feb 2016

@ewg Food Lobby Spends $101 Million in 2015 to Avert #GMO Labeling http://bit.ly/1oDeq9x   #StopTheDARKAct #RightToKnow Permalink 8:35 PM – 25 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Are you also proud of your smear campaign agents? https://twitter.com/RobbFraley/status/702962046967615489   Permalink 1:12 PM – 25 Feb 2016

@tommiesunshine #WhichHillary? The one controlled by corporate interests & their money? #ImNotWithHer pic.twitter.com/gZkyOwsAvH Permalink 12:23 PM – 25 Feb 2016

@nntaleb volatilità e “fat tails” code spesse https://twitter.com/dottorpax/status/702937718184091648   Permalink 11:42 AM – 25 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Aaron understood the no-tie-allowed, now showing higher clustering in left than right tail #RWRI day 4 pic.twitter.com/Bl97W4xg2l Permalink 11:06 AM – 25 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Day 4 of Real World Risk #RWRI Stoyan Stoyanov showing defects of naive uses of Kolmogorov-Smirnov pic.twitter.com/sbqeETTAxp Permalink 10:16 AM – 25 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Trick to be troll-free. When you block someone, block ALL his followers. The heuristic works wonders. Permalink 4:59 AM – 25 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Learning Markowicz & econ/finance theory before understanding fat tails is wrong; like having to learn astrology prior to astronomy.#REWRI Permalink 4:50 AM – 25 Feb 2016

@VergilDen “Bullshit is convex to the number of variables you have.” #RWRI #BigData @nntaleb Permalink 2:10 PM – 24 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Day 3: Zari’s doctoral advisor was AN Kolmogorov. pic.twitter.com/Lmkpqj8eBz Permalink 12:03 PM – 24 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Day 3: Borjana on asymmetries and extremes pic.twitter.com/wwyoVPwXQb Permalink 8:46 AM – 24 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Day 3 of the Real World Risk Certificate, Boryana presenting Turbulence to a nonturbulent audience. pic.twitter.com/1JbHNpT1m4 Permalink 8:16 AM – 24 Feb 2016

@nntaleb What Are the Chances of a Third World War? Debunking sloppy statistics a la Pinker. Paper with @dottorpax pic.twitter.com/O08nry7mtn Permalink 8:04 AM – 24 Feb 2016

@pascalbouvier utterly impressed by the Real World Risk course led by @nntaleb . Best two days I could have spent in NYC. Fat tails here we come. Permalink 3:35 PM – 23 Feb 2016

@pascalbouvier Second day rocking even more than first day. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/702132645195603968   Permalink 7:23 AM – 23 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Inaugural Real World Risk Certificate, day 2. @AAAAAAAnne pic.twitter.com/HGFpGeltEZ Permalink 6:07 AM – 23 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Medicine is largely an apprenticeship model @KEcurious @DavidBCollum Permalink 5:08 AM – 23 Feb 2016

@nntaleb No I don’t look like Umberto Eco pic.twitter.com/eeY5DdIYaf Permalink 4:53 AM – 23 Feb 2016

@VergilDen When asked how would you explain antifragility to a child, @nntaleb responded “Time is smarter than you.” Permalink 4:09 AM – 23 Feb 2016

Umberto Eco , Squid Ink, Berbers, Liar Kevin, Think Tanks, Real World Risk Institute | Twitter

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@nntaleb First lecture pic.twitter.com/u5PP46DYBv Permalink 11:24 AM – 22 Feb 2016

@nntaleb RWRI risk first lecture pic.twitter.com/HjTfO4ri0l Permalink 11:22 AM – 22 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Real World Risk Institute first seminar, Robert Frey lecturing on cellular automata pic.twitter.com/gRyWapLjCi Permalink 11:21 AM – 22 Feb 2016

@GMWatch Tell Senator Roberts & #Monsanto where to shove the DarkAct http://www.gmofreeusa.org/take-action/stop-the-dark-act/   #StopTheDarkAct #gmo pic.twitter.com/hxJMvCFH1A Permalink 11:24 AM – 21 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Eco is not in the middle right picture. Only top and bottom left. @AdilNajam @janmpdx Permalink 11:00 AM – 21 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Umberto Eco’s library is clean, neat, stylish, has adapted IKEA white shelves, unlike the musty one shown here. @janmpdx @AdilNajam Permalink 9:53 AM – 21 Feb 2016

@NeinQuarterly Barcelona. Come for the Gaudí. Stay for the Magritte. pic.twitter.com/EQuH3djZdP Permalink 7:18 AM – 21 Feb 2016

@nntaleb This is Umberto Eco’s Library, not the other one.
@AdilNajam pic.twitter.com/9rMUsmRs4w Permalink 5:42 AM – 21 Feb 2016

@nntaleb It is NOT his library on the left. Sorry, it is not. @AdilNajam Permalink 5:39 AM – 21 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The reason 1) I do not listen to “think tanks” as they are literally BS Vendors, 2) Refuse to believe DC insiders. https://twitter.com/JeffDSachs/status/700918233377984513   Permalink 1:51 PM – 20 Feb 2016

@nntaleb It is uncertain what school does beyond the PR. One thing is certain
School will never teach you how to stand & take risks for your beliefs. Permalink 1:08 PM – 20 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Which allowed to get closed form MAD of n-summed symmetric power law α=3 (not in literature)
Thanks @mikeandallie pic.twitter.com/PBCqgIV2OI Permalink 12:28 PM – 20 Feb 2016

@NonMeek @nntaleb Today’s #Offshorecomic. This strip was inspired by Taleb’s fantastic book #FooledByRandomness. #HedgeFunds pic.twitter.com/BW1BXNjvMf Permalink 11:16 AM – 20 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Liar Kevin Folta spreads lies again. The reasons why we never “debate” something *not even wrong* @kevinfolta pic.twitter.com/8KvLVrLImk Permalink 11:16 AM – 20 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Comparative squid ink studied. pic.twitter.com/LRE1ZBjeK2 Permalink 9:50 AM – 20 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Matt Ridley has never written a scholarly work to get: one never responds to “not even wrong” @Ednever @mattwridley pic.twitter.com/Rz5Tp0H8xw Permalink 8:17 AM – 20 Feb 2016

@Ballandalus Imazighen/Berbers played a pivotal role in the intellectual, religious & cultural developments in al-Andalus, but this is often ignored Permalink 7:33 AM – 20 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Looking for help in uncovering the logic behind a sequence: http://math.stackexchange.com/q/1664102/88078?stw=2   Permalink 4:36 AM – 20 Feb 2016

@JMeeker86 @nntaleb very sad to hear. Your characterization of Umberto Eco really captured how profoundly interesting he was. pic.twitter.com/iHR9SzRHjW Permalink 7:36 PM – 19 Feb 2016

Umberto Eco, Yiddish Proverbs, Citi, John Gray, Popper, Hayek, Bryan Appleyard, Flaneuring | Twitter

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@nntaleb RIP, Umberto Eco
Ad vitam aeternam Permalink 4:09 PM – 19 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The reason we decided to not respond to this idiot.
@nickgillespie pic.twitter.com/h4eIZfvpid Permalink 2:45 PM – 19 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The Qatari/Saudi-funded BS promoted by Obamistic bureaucrats we hear about the Syrian opposition:
http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/02/18/the-media-are-misleading-public-syria/8YB75otYirPzUCnlwaVtcK/story.html   Permalink 1:27 PM – 19 Feb 2016

@nntaleb كذب المنجمون ولو صدقوا https://twitter.com/YiddishProverbs/status/700791249624821762   Permalink 1:19 PM – 19 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Has the Market Crash Only Just Begun? http://bloom.bg/1XxEO0X   via markets Permalink 11:18 PM – 18 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Citi is a periodically bankrupt utility. #noskininthegame

Citigroup Increases Corbat’s Pay 27% to $16.5 Million http://bloom.bg/1mKMdws   Permalink 5:13 PM – 18 Feb 2016

@fjechandi One pager on #fragilitylogic by @nntaleb at the @bankofengland’s #onebank seminar launch. pic.twitter.com/pi25ILnTAX Permalink 11:01 AM – 18 Feb 2016

@BryanAppleyard John Gray and @nntaleb compose a tweet pic.twitter.com/KFZZRWJE1h Permalink 1:37 PM – 17 Feb 2016

@nntaleb John Gray knew Popper & Hayek: Popper got angry & Hayek was indifferent with criticism for same reason: they were both knew they were right Permalink 1:40 PM – 17 Feb 2016

@nntaleb john Gray and @BryanAppleyard will next explain why Guinness is better in UK and Ireland than U.S. pic.twitter.com/pkJ8uIKZnZ Permalink 12:52 PM – 17 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Philosopher John Gray & @BryanAppleyard fixated on a piece of lamb in anotherwise quite abstract discussion. pic.twitter.com/4X8RorlYLj Permalink 11:51 AM – 17 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Flaneuring in London, seeing the minority rule: stores organic or halal. GMOs are dead.
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf   pic.twitter.com/w2paMA4zCh Permalink 7:53 AM – 17 Feb 2016

GMO Alarmist Nassim Taleb Backs Out of Debate. I Refute Him Anyway | Reason.com

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https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/700813395612676096

Biotech Crops and the Alleged Risk of Human Extinction

Taleb and his colleagues want to impose their supposedly non-naive version of the precautionary principle to forestall activities when “consequences can involve total irreversible ruin, such as the extinction of human beings or all life on the planet.” And GMOs, they feel, could result in “irreversible environmental and health damage” or cause “an irreversible termination of life at some scale, which could be planetwide.” Biotech crops, they claim, pose a systemic risk of global ecocide.

It is a trivially true statement that if some activity will eventually lead to total ruin, then total ruin, even if it takes a long time, will eventually follow that activity. Taleb and his colleagues just assume that producing and growing modern biotech crops is such an activity, then trivially predict a GMO apocalypse. There is a lot of hand-waving about the dangers of global connectivity and dose response relationships that may be relevant to the workings of financial markets, but they provide no justification for their assumption of biotech disaster. Unwarranted dire assumptions in; unjustified devastating consequences out.

Source: GMO Alarmist Nassim Taleb Backs Out of Debate. I Refute Him Anyway. – Reason.com
HatTip Dave Lull