Monthly Archives: July 2015

The Precautionary Principle applied to Climate problems in the presence of model error

 

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/622764064977104896

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/622752410486874112

The Precautionary Principle applied to Climate problems in the presence of model error. pic.twitter.com/WpLqvzqHpr
And this is the mathematical backup of why more skepticism should increase precaution, not other way around https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/mathbehindpp.pdf

Daniel Kahneman: ‘What would I eliminate if I had a magic wand? Overconfidence’ | The Guardian

Photograph: Richard Saker

“I’m far on the left of the spectrum in Israeli politics and always have been,” he says. “I hated the notion of occupation since the very beginning. My first memories from after the 67 war are travelling with my children in the occupied territories. There were awnings over groceries stores with Hebrew lettering advertising Osem noodles. I couldn’t bear it. I thought that was dreadful because I remembered German lettering in France. I have very strong feelings about Israel as an occupier.”Despite this, Kahneman has found it impossible to envisage a settlement that will satisfy both sides. “I don’t believe in the power of rational argument in this context,” he says, with an air of resignation. He mentions one occasion when he was visited at his university by a Palestinian academic after 67. They were getting on famously. But then “we tried to negotiate peace, and we failed, essentially on the right of return, which although obviously a legitimate demand among the Palestinians, means the destruction of Israel. So people who don’t want Israel destroyed cannot accept the right of return, even though they might understand that it has legitimacy behind it.”

Source: Daniel Kahneman: ‘What would I eliminate if I had a magic wand? Overconfidence’ | Books | The Guardian
HatTip to Dave Lull

As technology increases, misunderstanding of ruin by a very small number of people is sufficient to guarantee ruin

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/622407350482305024

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/622375840144302080

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/622127777064595456

As technology increases, misunderstanding of ruin by a very small number of people is sufficient to guarantee ruin Greece: Neither those who made the decision to borrow nor those who made the decision to lend had skin in the game. “Other people’ money”.
Friday probability quiz. X has 2 children. One of them is a girl. What is the probability of the other one being a girl?

Friends, a mystery. In S. Italy it is taboo to have butter with fish

Friends, a mystery.
In S. Italy it is taboo to have butter with fish. In the Levant it is taboo to have yoghurt and fish within 4 hours of each other. This seems to hold in many other countries, such as India and Pakistan. Where does this come from? The explanation usually offered is not religious but supposedly has something to do with health effects (hence the root is pre-Christianity and possibly pre-monotheism). I recall someone warning me of sudden death.
PS- Now, strangely, the Kashrut bans dairy with meat not fish, while customs ban the reverse. Only some Sephardic Jews have adopted the habit.
Found something thanks to Arthur B.
http://www.persee.fr/…/a…/cea_0008-0055_1996_num_36_144_1859

via: Facebook