This is a bit technical (for those into technical stuff and mathematical flaneuring). It proves why you can’t predict in any multivariate (not even complex) system.
Even thin-tailed variables are unpredictable.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Propagation.pdf

PS: Actually we show how we lose predictability by adding dimensions, with a trade-off, so it can lead to precise policies and decisions

via: Facebook