A new article by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Gregory F. Treverton appearing in the January/February 2015 issue of Foreign Affairs reminds us that things are not always what they seem, especially when it comes to human nature, culture and group dynamics. Taleb and Treverton argue that despite appearances, strong, centralized governments with minimal political variability like those of Saudi Arabia and Egypt are actually more “fragile” than decentralized, politically diverse countries such as Italy or Lebanon.

Taleb – Five sources of national fragility

According to the authors, fragility for nations derives from five main sources: a centralized government, a “one trick pony” economy, high debt and leverage, a lack of political diversity, and lack of experience with dealing with shocks in the past.

Taleb and Treverton highlight that “Applying these criteria, the world map looks a lot different. Disorderly regimes come out as safer bets than commonly thought—and seemingly placid states turn out to be ticking time bombs.”

via Nassim Taleb On The Calm Before the Storm.