Most try to take a fixed time window say one day, one week, etc. and try to predict events.To predict, find events that have certain occurrence but uncertain timing say, the fragile will break rather than certain timing but uncertain occurence.
via Most try to take a fixed time window say one… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
@nntalebWe Christians of the Levant Egypt and Mesopotamia are being ethnically cleansed w funding from headgear states & they want me to be “polite”
Join us for a public talk by Prof Nassim Taleb as he shares his theories on two of his bestselling books; The Black Swan and Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder.
Date: Wednesday, 24 September 2014
Time: 10.00am – 11.30am
Venue: Level 16, The Pod 100 Victoria Street, National Library Building, Singapore 188064.
For access to The Pod, please proceed to lift lobby opposite the information counter.Please visit nlb.gov.sg/golibrary to register for this programme. Admission is free.
via Antifragility: Gaining From Volatility, Stress And Disorder | S.U.R.E..
Friends, looking for data on deaths under nation-states compared to casualties under the “messy” city-state and statelings regime. Historians tell me that “there were a lot wars” but these wars weren’t cumulatively so murderous. Take Italy: 650,000 people died in the 1rst war; before that I can’t find anything worse than 16,000 in the 16th century. I don’t know how the 30 Y war affected Italy.
Any help with data would be welcome. The concern is city-states in 18th C Europe (and 17th)…
LEARNING TO DO NOTHING Idleness as a BS detector/cleaner – At the start of this year I resolved to do “nothing except if it felt like a hobby” i.e., “satisfy interests while providing entertainment value with zero pressure, no schedule and no feeling of duty”. The rule is to wake up with the aim to “do nothing”, have nothing scheduled and avoid the usual guilt or shame encountered by most when “wasting time”, have minimum committments and talk to NO journalist. Of course, cut everything unpleasant, no matter what the potential gain. Treat everything including mathematics the way a great-uncle of mine who was a man of leisure treated his afternoon game of bridge: intellectual concentration as entertainment.RESULT: 12 academic papers 9 accepted so far, finished a book Silent Risk–well, almost, wrote 100 aphorisms, ate 2 Beijing ducks, learned to typeset books as a self-standing publisher, found 4 investments … and this is 3/4 of the year.
NOTE: To do things make sure you have no assistant. They drag you into doing things for the sake of “work”.
via LEARNING TO DO NOTHING Idleness as a BS… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
