Monthly Archives: October 2013

OPEN DISCUSSION: Back to skin in the game.

OPEN DISCUSSION: Back to skin in the game.

It looks like skin in the game does not necessarily work because it makes people more careful, rather but because it allows the risk taker to exit the gene pool and stop transferring the risk to others. A bad driver exposed to harm would eventually die and stop killing people on the road; shielded from harm he would keep killing others ad infinitum, as if he were an economist a la JS or PK.

Let us discuss: is skin-in-the-game largely a selection mechanism, or is it a behavioral modifier, or both, and in what proportion?

Thanks, friends.

[Please feel uninhibited but stay rigorous, and observe rules meant to prevent the discussion from moving away from the core point. This site has been working very, very, very well because trolls have had zero second option.]

via OPEN DISCUSSION: Back to skin in the… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

REAL ADVENTURERS DON’T LOOK LIKE JAMES BOND…

REAL ADVENTURERS DON’T LOOK LIKE JAMES BOND: THE FRAUD FRAUDSTER WANTS TO LET YOU KNOW HE IS A FRAUD.
Colette told the budding George Simenon: true literature should not sound literary, forcing him to strip his style of fake gold. It is the same with science: true science doesn’t look like job-market science, and true scientists know that. For instance, the “happiness” economist Bruno Frey has the best publishing record of any of his peer >300 published papers, but even economists don’t think much of him. And, of course, real business doesn’t look like MBA businesses; real risk takers often look like accountants; real professors don’t look like pipe-smoking tweed-clad portraits; really rich people don’t wear tailored suits and often fly premium economy. Real mercenaries like Bob Denard are more likely to look like college administrators.
Most of us traders knew that Madoff was a fraud, even if it took a while for the system to figure it out. There is something about absence of substance that ends up screaming at our inner BS detector, as if the fraud wanted to be the first one to tell you that he was a fraud, by over-imitation and making his gold glitter a bit too much. It may take a while; we may be fooled a bit, but our BS detector ends up eventually working.

via REAL ADVENTURERS DON’T LOOK LIKE JAMES… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

Risk Control: Nassim Taleb Versus Reality

What do you mean by “fake low volatility?

You know the funds of Bear Stearns that blew up in the subprime crisis? They were funds that never had a down month. A lot of people who blew up in subprime did not have a down month—ever. And people rushed to invest in them because they were low volatility. And then they blew up.

Typically, I never get close to anything that has no volatility, unless it’s justified, like Treasury bonds. If you go to a balance sheet, you can see why there is low volatility, whether it is genuine. The company can have a barbell. The company can have very, very low leverage. Or you might discover that a company is doing the equivalent of selling remote options, and the company can lose a lot of money in one blow.

Let’s link it to make it more intuitive: In general, I can say that a system that has very, very low volatility is likely to blow up. Take the example of Syria. Syria had no political volatility for 40 years, and look what happened.

Forests that never have fires are likely to be completely eradicated by fires when they happen. Forests that have regular fires are much more stable.

via Risk Control: Nassim Taleb Versus Reality.

Many people are harrassing Malcolm Gladwell…

Many people are harrassing Malcolm Gladwell. Assuming critics are right about the anectodal aspect of his work, many many social “scientists” are much worse, many are dangerously ignorant of the very notion of “evidence” and the validity of statistical claims. And if he who is clueless about statistical inference is clueless about science.

This is from my Chapter 6.

socialscience.pdf – Google Drive

via Many people are harrassing Malcolm… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

SKIN-IN-THE-GAME: Eye for eye 3ayn…

SKIN-IN-THE-GAME: Eye for eye 3ayn ta7at 3ayn is not literal. One can’t inflict exactly the same pubishment: what if the other person happens to be blind? If a doctor amputates the wrong leg, there has to be another solution than amputate the doctor’s leg.
(I thank Marc Abrahams for Talmudic advice/guidance/training.)

YUTorah Online – On the Daf – Bava Kamma/84/a

via SKIN-IN-THE-GAME: Eye for eye 3ayn… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.