Monthly Archives: August 2013

corrected Friends, let us progressively compile a list of fallacies…

corrected Friends, let us progressively compile a list of fallacies, and give them names, that we can refer to in conversation as shortcut, instead of having to reinvent the wheel every time. For instance:
F-1: BURDEN OF PROOF FALLACY: someone asks you “do you have evidence that [INSERT NEW PRODUCT such as GMO, cigarettes in 1940, etc.] is harmful? The answer is that something without a track record, in risk space, needs to prove its hamlessness, not you its harmuflness.
F-2: This more complicated Fallacy:https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/neuro.pdf
F-3: GREEN LUMBER FALLACY…
F-4: THE [let’s find a name] FALLACY: example Pinker’s mistaking fact checking for a statistical estimator and calling something “evidence”…
Perhaps we could wikify them? I may open a file and update.

https://t.co/oBGjPA8j7Cdl.dropboxusercontent.com

via correctedFriends, let us progressively… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

Is Your Business Fragile? Or Antifragile?

Perversely, however, the very governmental policies that are designed to protect us all from the dangers of economic cycles and random problems are in fact making the world economy ever more fragile – more vulnerable, as a system, to unforeseen problems. And as I’ve written before, this is exacerbated by the increasing interconnectedness of our entire world economic system, which tends to speed up the “feedback loops” that drive cascades of sentiment and interactions. The recent economic crisis is a perfect illustration of his point. The simple fact is that there is no such thing as an invariant antifragile system – that is, tranquility and invariability inevitably lead any complex system (like the world economy) to become fragile, getting more rigid and increasingly vulnerable to unforeseen events the longer the system remains unstressed by changes.

Unfortunately, it is the ability of individual businesses to fail that makes the overall economic system antifragile. According to Taleb, “In a system, the sacrifices of some units—fragile units, that is, or people—are often necessary for the well-being of other units or the whole. The fragility of every startup is necessary for the economy to be antifragile, and that’s what makes, among other things, entrepreneurship work: the fragility of individual entrepreneurs and their necessarily high failure rate.” So business failures are unfortunate, but they are necessary.

If this were all there were in Taleb’s book it would be well worth the read, but there is much more.

via Don Peppers Is Your Business Fragile? Or Antifragile? | LinkedIn.

The dragon kings of Didier Sornette and the skill of predicting financial bubble bursts – Economic Times

Of Black Swans…

In 2001, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, quantitative trader and academician, published a book Fooled by Randomness where he outlined the theory of Black Swans. Taleb described black swans as events whose probability of occurrence was mathematically very low (like finding a black swan in a bevy of white swans). Taleb explained that these events occur with higher frequency than theory predicted, were hard to predict if not impossible to predict, and caused events of significant consequence and magnitude.

… and Dragon Kings

Sornette, on the other hand, makes an entirely contrary claim. Not only can he predict the probability of a bubble bursting, he can do it with remarkable accuracy and, of course, before the event! He calls these outlier events as Dragon Kings. He has graphs that show the predictions of the S&P 500 US Index, and oil prices made before the crash in 2007-08. These and others can be found on the website of his Financial Crisis Observatory.

via The dragon kings of Didier Sornette and the skill of predicting financial bubble bursts – Economic Times.

 

Noise and Signal.The odds of using…

Noise and Signal.The odds of using, 10 years from now, something picked up today from random media is < 1 in 50,000. In science (outside of mathematics) it is < 1 in 30,000. On the other hand, you have more than 50 % chance of using (or remembering) something that you are interested in and has been “in print” more than a century.

There is a very easy filter. What you search for is less likely to be noise. Further, word of mouth is more potent filtering than we think.

(Adding derivations, in technical docs, soon).

via Noise and Signal.The odds of using, 10… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.