A test MOOC. Please let me know what points I should also MOOC.
Thanks in advance, friends.Antifragility and Dose-Response in Nature ( Nassim Taleb’s Antifragile) This is a test for a Mooc. The aim is an intuitive discussion of technical points in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Antifragile.
via A test MOOC. Please let me know what… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.
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| Singles only. Applies to the next permanently appointed chair of the US Federal Reserve. Must be confirmed by the White House. Others on request. |
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Larry Summers
4/6
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Donald Kohn
18/1
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Larry Meyer
33/1
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Janet Yellen
7/4
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Alan Blinder
18/1
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Stanley Fischer
40/1
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Roger Ferguson
12/1
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Christina Romer
22/1
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Jeffrey Sachs
300/1
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Timothy Geithner
16/1
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Alan Krueger
25/1
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
1000/1
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Economists are not always consistent in applying logic. We are all instructed in econometrics class that, when applying standard statistical techniques, you should reflect on whether the data have a normal distribution. For over a decade, it has been a crusade of Taleb’s that once you introduce skewness, which applies to almost all economic phenomenon, it is erroneous to assume the data have a normal distribution, on which the most common statistical techniques depend. This may be why econometrics has never been decisive in settling any economic question of consequence, according to Larry Summers, widely-touted as possibly the next head of the Federal Reserve Board.
One reason social scientists are so wedded to the normal distribution is it validates results drawn from small samples. A recent paper on the challenging topic of intergenerational mobility had only 13 sample points to support its main conclusion. But small samples likely don’t include the rare events that preoccupy much of Taleb’s thinking. By his standards, research based on small samples is little more than anecdotes; “Social scientists need to have a clear idea of the difference between science and journalism, or the one between empiricism and anecdotal statements. Science is not about making claims about a sample, but using a sample to make general claims and discuss properties that apply outside the sample.”
The Skin In The Game Heuristic for Protection Against Tail Events
Constantine Sandis
Oxford Brooks
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
NYU-Poly; Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne – Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne (CES)
July 30, 2013
Abstract:
Standard economic theory makes an allowance for the agency problem, but not the compounding of moral hazard in the presence of informational opacity, particularly in what concerns high-impact events in fat tailed domains. But the ancients did; so did many aspects of moral philosophy. We propose a global and morally mandatory heuristic that anyone involved in an action which can possibly generate harm for others, even probabilistically, should be required to be exposed to some damage, regardless of context. While perhaps not sufficient, the heuristic is certainly necessary hence mandatory. It is supposed to counter risk hiding in the tails. We link the rule to various philosophical approaches to ethics and moral luck.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 10
Keywords: RIsk management, Heuristics, Black Swans, Fragility, Ethics, Moral Philosophy, Probability
working papers series
