Friends, let us look for heuristics to not be turkeys.In the eyes of the nonspecialist, the marketer good at BS could more easily pass for a specialist than the real specialist Plato. This extends beyond the confidence game: In a highly random environment, the link cause-effect is blurred and in large corporations the fake who knows how to claim credit for successes tends to become the chairperson.So what is the heuristic in a situation facing such a choice? Assuming you are facing two persons and need to make a decision on whose services to use, what is your convex heuristic?
“Never hire a well-dressed option trader” was a heuristic I suggested in Dynamic Hedging 1996. Avoid the economist at all costs is a potent heuristic. Another: “If someone can explain very clearly a procedure, with a credible intellectual discourse, he is not likely to be a true expert”. Or: “verify if he eats his own dog food skin-in-the-game.Eager to hear suggestions.

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