Monthly Archives: August 2013

Friday’s Quiz. You run into 2 people and are told that the total net worth for both is $30 million…

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Friday’s Quiz. You run into 2 people and are told that the total net worth for both is $30 million. What is the most likely breakdown? Next we will apply that to errors… and GMOs.

via Friday’s Quiz. You run into 2 people and… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

So far everybody got it. Now you run into 2 people and are told that the total height for both is 2.1 meters 13ft 5 27⁄64in What is the most likely breakdown?

This one is easy, but I will explain how we will get to GMOs…

via So far everybody got it. Now you run… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

Sorry, sorry, typo. Now you run into 2 people and are told that the total height for both is 4.1 meters 13ft 5 27⁄64in What is the most likely breakdown?

This one is easy, but I will explain how we will get to GMOs…

via Sorry, sorry, typo. Now you run into 2… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

Now, next step, here is the reason why, for humans, the most likely height is exactly half of the total for large deviations but for unconstrained variables like wealth, the most likely is 30 million/~0 (assuming no debt). Simply, nature has a way to constrain variations.

We are getting close to GMOs, but we need one more step.

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1307.6695v2.pdf

The solution to the Friday quiz is here. Go to page 3, section called “Application”. But the rest of the text shows the background and a more formal difference between Extremistan and Mediocristan.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/fridayquiz.pdf

via The solution to the Friday quiz is here…. – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

via Now, next step, here is the reason why,… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

This article passed a potent filters: it was posted by 3 people on this site…

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This article passed a potent filters: it was posted by 3 people on this site. Indeed: this is a convex (antifragile) response, benefiting from Jensen’s inequality.
Posted by Pablo Emanuel, Anthony Bishop, and Subhabrata Pal (plus Jed Trott).

Mathematicians have found that by varying the timing of treatments, doctors may be able to increase the odds that a disease outbreak will die off suddenly

via This article passed a potent filters: it… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

Nasim Taleb on Syria, Market Regulation, Nasdaq | Bloomberg

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Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a New York University professor and author of “The Black Swan” and “Antifragile,” talks about the need for executives to be accountable and pay the price for poor decisions. Taleb, speaking with Tom Keene, Sara Eisen and Alix Steel on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance,” also discusses the conflict in Syria and the role of technology at exchanges. (Source: Bloomberg) 

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/nasim-taleb-on-syria-market-regulation-nasdaq-yd58R1ZqTI6LewUPF2E72A.html

Second Annual SALT Asia Conference Announces Program

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Mark your calendars folks. This should be good though the deck is pretty much stacked against NNT. Hope he’ll have FT traveling with him.

NEW YORK, Aug. 26, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — SkyBridge Capital (SkyBridge), an alternative investment firm, today announced the program for the second annual SkyBridge Alternatives “SALT” Asia Conference, which will take place at the Marina Bay Sands in Singapore September 24-27, 2013. Featured speakers for the invitation-only event include: Timothy Geithner, 75th United States Secretary of the Treasury; Jean-Claude Trichet, Former President of the ECB (2003 -2011) & Former Governor Banque de France (1993-2003; John Lipsky, Former First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund (2006-2011); Jin Liqun, Former Chairman of the Board of Supervisors, China Investment Corporation (CIC); Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Deputy Prime Minister & Minister for Finance, Singapore; and Nassim Taleb, New York Times Bestselling Author, “The Black Swan” and Distinguished Scientific Advisor, Universa Investments.

via Second Annual SALT Asia Conference Announces Program – Yahoo! Finance Canada.

This is a technical version of the “Masquerade Problem”…

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Update 4/8/20.  A reader has pointed out that the pdf this post linked to is no longer valid. They subsequently tweeted to NNT asking how to follow up on the Masquerade Problem and were directed to the recent version of the ‘Technical Incerto’ currently hosted and available to download as ‘Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Application’ from https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21. Discussion of the Masquerade Problem starts on page 41 of the current version.

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This is a technical version of the “Masquerade Problem” in The Black Swan, or how to survive with problem of induction. Remarkably, 7 years later, I have not seen anyone getting it. Hopefully, when presented technically, people may get the point.

Will convert the Chapter into a paper at some point, format in LaTex and put on ArXiv. But comments are welcome.

Thanks in advance