Monthly Archives: July 2013

Who you gonna believe, me or you own eyes? « Science-Based Medicine

Relevent, especially:

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled people make poor decisions and reach erroneous conclusions, but their incompetence denies them the metacognitive ability to recognize their mistakes.

The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their ability as above average, much higher than it actually is, while the highly skilled underrate their own abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority.

Actual competence may weaken self-confidence, as competent individuals may falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. As Kruger and Dunning conclude, “the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others.

The effect is about paradoxical defects in cognitive ability, both in oneself and as one compares oneself to others.

via Who you gonna believe, me or you own eyes? « Science-Based Medicine.

The central argument of The Black Swan was understood by…

The central argument of The Black Swan was understood by:
100% of firemen
99.9% of skin-in-the-game risk-takers and businesspersons
85% of common readers about > 3 million copies
80% of hard scientists except those doing econonophysics, s.a. Sornette, etc. and complexity artists
65% of psychologists except Harvard psychologists
60% of traders
25% of U.K. journalists
12.1% of money managers who manage money of others
1.5% of “Risk professionals”
1% of U.S. journalistsand
0% of economists or perhaps, to be fair, .0001%
Which is why I had to write this. Vol 1 is near complete. 140 pages!
Fat Tails and AntiFragility http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html

via The central argument of The Black Swan… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

The artificial gives us hangovers, the natural inverse-hangovers…

The artificial gives us hangovers, the natural inverse-hangovers.

The joys of post-exercise, breaking a fast, meeting a friend, helping someone in trouble, or humiliating an economist are examples of inverse hangovers. Antifragility = series of earned inverse hangovers. They don’t come for free.

via The artificial gives us hangovers, the… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.