Monthly Archives: May 2013

TO ECONOMISTS. Let me make it clear…

TO ECONOMISTS. Let me make it clear. I am as orthodox neoclassical economist as they make them, not a fringe heterodox or something. I just do not like unreliable models that use *some* math like regression and miss a layer of stochasticity, and get wrong results, and I hate sloppy mechanistic reliance on bad statistical methods. I do not like models that fragilize. I do not like models that work on someone’s computer but not in reality. This is standard economics. I showed in 1.7 that we cannot use standard deviations and it is not a matter of taste. Being an economist does not mean being a turkey. Yet all economists persist in these bogus methods.

I will show in Volume 2 of FT & AF how Markowitz and Samuelson-Merton optimization blow you up. Refusing a model that blow you up is as orthodox economics as one can get.

I want to take the charlatanism out of economics and there is a way to do it: examine layers of stochasticity. Detect fragility, and remove offending model.

Nor do I like to be closely associated with behavioral economics. I go ballistic every time a fringe economics group invites me to give a lecture. Kapish?

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And finally although I do not want to be an academic, EVERYTHING of substance in the text has been peer-reviewed (or is in the process of peer reviewed) in Quant/Math/Stat journals.

Thanks

See the test > pages 100 in https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_31K_MP92hURjZxTkxUTFZnMVk/edit

via TO ECONOMISTS. Let me make it clear. I… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

HOW TO STRENGTHEN YOUR ARGUMENT

HOW TO STRENGTHEN YOUR ARGUMENT:

Since I’ve posted my two doc showing excatly where economics use BS statistical methods that do not support their conclusions (=>irresponsible charlatans), no economist has anything said of *substance*. But the good news is that they were not silent, but annoyed and critical. Every sentence that is not directed at the argument strengthens it.

The doc is now 110 pages, here. Read Chapters 1-3.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_31K_MP92hURjZxTkxUTFZnMVk/edit,

The econ professors (typically young professors starting a career) seem to comment here. Enjoy:

http://www.econjobrumors.com/

via HOW TO STRENGTHEN YOUR ARGUMENT: Since… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

Many are good at solving equations but…

Many are good at solving equations but not understanding them; others are good at understanding equations but not solving them ; a few are good at both understanding and solving equations; those left over who are neither good at solving equations nor understanding them, yet insist on doing mathematics, become economists.

via Many are good at solving equations but… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.