Monthly Archives: March 2013

Friends, the new project: a linear TEXTBOOK on risk and antifragility.

Friends, the new project: a linear TEXTBOOK on risk and antifragility. I am putting all the relevant technical papers in linear textbook form. To bust current econometrics and similar frauds, and suggest replacement I need to put it in a complete technical textbook-style format targeted at the new generation of students in statistics econometrics, risk, and social science.The document will be freely available electronically. I think it will come out at the same time as the U.K. AF paperback in June.Will post chapters here.http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/textbook.pdf

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Never write a negative book review review…

Never write a negative book review review. It is a step below badmouthing. A bad book is its own bad review.It just hit me that, in 14 years of reviewing books on AMAZON & elsewhere, I never posted a bad review. Actually, I’ve never written a bad review except for one that I ‘ve removed since.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/cdp/member-reviews/A3V94HTDKTOY1O/ref=cm_pdp_rev_all?ie=UTF8&sort_by=MostRecentReview

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» Book Review: Antifragile Coffee Theory

For as much as I love this book and Taleb’s other work, there is one thing that I must take issue with. It seems to me that being both a humanist and a proponent of antifragility are incompatible views. Taleb, however, claims that he is both of these things. The reason I see this as a contradiction is because human biological evolution cannot progress without stress and selection pressures of all kinds on individual humans. Thus, our attempts at saving weak individual people and trying to eliminate individual suffering may come at the expense of fragilizing the human species as a whole. Humanists, in this sense, are fragilistas.

As a humanist, one should innately value all human life and want to limit human suffering to any extent possible a position I’m in favor of. However, should this be done at the expense of fragilizing the species? Not all fragilistas have ill intentions, and good-hearted efforts to improve the human condition often paradoxically make things worse. As the old cliché goes, “the road to hell is paved with good intentions.”

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Also from Greg Linster:
Antifragile

Book Review: The Black Swan

Book Review: Fooled By Randomness

An additional argument against BIG DATA…

An additional argument against BIG DATA, which people are starting to discover just now, is that there are about 35,000 different variables in economics and finance. And we have usually, less, much less than 10,000 data points per variable. This (plus fat tails) explains why econometrics has not been able to deliver.

(cont) To imagine how bad it can get, think that anyone with a good computer program can have access to at least 700 million correlations with just economic and finance variables.

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