Monthly Archives: December 2012

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: A thinker with an antifragile ego

Before The Black Swan was published, Taleb had been a prophet without honour in the United States. “I knew before the crash that the system was going to blow up. In 2003, I went to the New York Times and said, ‘Fannie Mae [the Federal National Mortgage Association] is sitting on dynamite with taxpayers’ money. These guys are going to blow up with my money because they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing risk-wise.’” But the “Gray Lady” didn’t listen. “I just had smear campaign after smear campaign.”

Taleb is currently engaged in a feud with the Times’s star columnist Thomas Friedman “He’s after me now”, whom he lambasts in the book for being a cheerleader for the Iraq war. Like the senior executives at the bailed-out banks, Friedman “paid no price for his mistakes”.

via Nassim Nicholas Taleb: A thinker with an antifragile ego.

Now my turn to play with the press: is Michiko Kakutani incompetent or just crazy?

Now my turn to play with the press: is Michiko Kakutani incompetent or just crazy?

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/mishiko.htm

Mathematics of Black Swans
“And some of his observations are just willfully perverse He suggests, for instance, that administering mammograms to “women over 40 on an annual basis does not lead to an increase in life expectancy,” because a doctor, seeing a tumor, “cannot avoid doing something harmful, like surgery followed by …

via Now my turn to play… | Facebook.

Correcting Myths: Phony is OK, Harmful Phony is the one to watch for.

Correcting Myths: Phony is OK, Harmful Phony is the one to watch for.

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/myths.htm

– Golden rule: one is not ethically allowed to tells others what to do unless he is doing it himself, and can suffer harm in case it turns out to be a bad advice. Predictors should be harmed by their prediction errors if these stand to hurt others. As such I cannot give advice, I can only tell readers what I do. Likewise, I cannot tell people what I predict, I can just describe my portfolio. This rule prevents people from being harmful phonies.

via Correcting Myths:… | Facebook.