Monthly Archives: November 2012

Antifragile: How to Live in a World We Don’t Understand by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | The Sunday Times

I t would be easy to think, from his place in the culture, that ­Nassim Taleb writes those ­Malcolm Gladwell-style big ideas books that have been such a recent vogue: slick expansions of journalism with a self-help edge. But Taleb, the author of Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan, is much, much more eccentric and, in a way, more interesting than that.

A mixture of parables, personal anecdote, ad hominem attacks, pseudo-Socratic dialogues involving an imaginary figure called Fat Tony, aphorisms and homespun philosophy ranging across subjects as diverse as finance, medicine, urban planning, political theory and how best to achieve an ­awesomely ripped set of abs, Antifragile reads like the ramblings of a clever, slightly cracked and intensely chippy autodidact — which is, it turns sout, exactly what it is.

via Antifragile: How to Live in a World We Don’t Understand by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | The Sunday Times.
HatTip to Dave Lull

LONDON NOV 26. When someone asked me who I want to interview me

LONDON NOV 26. When someone asked me who I want to interview me, my answer was “a fireman”. Reason: they understand risk, incompleteness, and decision. Alternatively, someone who takes risk and has scars from it. Well, it turned out that my first reviewer was a pro-athlete obsessed with randomness. I invited him to interview me and was lucky that he accepted.

http://www.musicglue.com/theunionchapel/eventdetails/26-nov-12-nassim-nicholas-taleb-in-conversation-with-ed-smith-the-union-chapel/
Nassim Nicholas Taleb in conversation with Ed Smith @ The Union Chapel, London on 26th November 2012
www.musicglue.com
The Union Chapel on Music Glue – Buy tickets, check

via LONDON NOV 26. When… | Facebook.

Learning to Love Volatility: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Antifragile – WSJ.com

Rule 5: Decision makers must have skin in the game.

At no time in the history of humankind have more positions of power been assigned to people who don’t take personal risks. But the idea of incentive in capitalism demands some comparable form of disincentive. In the business world, the solution is simple: Bonuses that go to managers whose firms subsequently fail should be clawed back, and there should be additional financial penalties for those who hide risks under the rug. This has an excellent precedent in the practices of the ancients. The Romans forced engineers to sleep under a bridge once it was completed.

Because our current system is so complex, it lacks elementary clarity: No regulator will know more about the hidden risks of an enterprise than the engineer who can hide exposures to rare events and be unharmed by their consequences. This rule would have saved us from the banking crisis, when bankers who loaded their balance sheets with exposures to small probability events collected bonuses during the quiet years and then transferred the harm to the taxpayer, keeping their own compensation.

In these five rules, I have sketched out only a few of the more obvious policy conclusions that we might draw from a proper appreciation of antifragility. But the significance of antifragility runs deeper. It is not just a useful heuristic for socioeconomic matters but a crucial property of life in general. Things that are antifragile only grow and improve under adversity. This dynamic can be seen not just in economic life but in the evolution of all things, from cuisine, urbanization and legal systems to our own existence as a species on this planet.

via Learning to Love Volatility: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Antifragile – WSJ.com.
HatTip to Dave Lull

Randomness, probability and uncertainty: Stress best | The Economist

Indeed, Mr Taleb thinks the big mistake is trying too hard to avoid shocks. Long periods of stability allow risks to accumulate until there is a major disaster; volatility means that things do not get too far out of kilter. In the economy cutting interest rates at the first sign of weakness stores up more trouble for later. In markets getting rid of speculators means prices are more stable in general but any fluctuations cause greater panic. In political systems the stability brought by regimes such as Hosni Mubarak’s in Egypt was artificial; without any effective way for people to express dissent, change leads to collapse.

The principle applies to career choices too. An apparently secure job within a large company disguises a dependency on a single employer and the risk that unemployment will cause a very sudden and steep loss of income. Professions that have more variable earnings, like taxi-driving or prostitution, are less vulnerable to really big shocks. They also use volatility as information: if a cabbie is in a part of town where there are no fares, he heads to a different area.

via Randomness, probability and uncertainty: Stress best | The Economist.
HatTip to Dave Lull!