It is perplexing, but amusing to observe people getting extremely excited about things you don’t care about; it is sinister to watch them ignore things you believe are fundamental.Aphorisms
TO MY LEBANESE FRIENDS. Heading soon to Lebanon in spite of events (please don’t tell my publishers). What people keep complaining about is the “instability” of the situation and the tension -not wondering that (1) tension is good; the more people are scared of instability (hence vigilant), the more stable the place (complacency is bad); (2) Lebanon is vastly MORE stable than one would have predicted given what’s taking place (think of the events that DID NOT happen). (3) Lebanon is antifragile: every problem leads to incremental mithridatization. (4) The media distorts risks. The press magnifies some hazards (just think of the hyping of risks of sharks in San Diego) not the real ones; their track record in predicting turmoil & collapses is close to zero.
Why it is no longer a good idea to be in the investment industry.
The principle of distributing errors: (1) no single individual, institution, or corporate unit should have the ability to make an error consequential enough to affect the overall system (CONCENTRATION); (2) Crowds should be organized in a way to never be able to act synchronously as a single crowd (TEMPORAL HOMOGENEITY);(may seem simple but we are severely violating this principle…)
The fact that people in countries with cold weather tend to be harder working, richer, less relaxed, less amicable, less tolerant of idleness, more overorganized and more harried than those in hotter climates should make us wonder whether wealth is mere indemnification, and motivation is just overcompensation, for not having a real life.