Monthly Archives: June 2012

Friends I wonder if this is clear…

Friends I wonder if this is clear

TECHNICAL APPENDIX: HOW TO DETECT WHO WILL GO BUST
Next, let us examine a method of detection of fragility. We can illustrate it with the story of the giant government sponsored lending firm called Fannie Mae, a corporation that collapsed, leaving the United States Taxpayer with hundreds of billions of dollars of losses and, alas, still counting.One day in 2003, Alex Berenson, a New York Times journalist came into my office with the secret risk reports of Fannie Mae, given to him by a defector. It was the kind of report getting into the guts of the methodology for risk calculation that only an insider can see — Fannie Mae makes its own risk calculations and disclosed what it wants to whomever, the public or someone else. But only a defector could show us the guts to see how the risk was calculated.

updated
via Friends I wonder if… | Facebook.

Nonludic Examination…

Nonludic Examination at the School of Antifragile: 1 You have no idea what the test is about, 2 The questions are very imprecise, 3 You don’t know how long you will have to finish it and accordingly, need a strategy, 4 The general subject matter is not defined, 5 You never know when the test is given until 2 hours before and need to find the location,… and more and more such layers of uncertainty.

via Nonludic… | Facebook.

Black swan investing using ETFs – The Globe and Mail

Last week, Horizons Exchange Traded Funds launched two Exchange Traded Funds based on Black Swan basics. Mr. Taleb serves as a distinguished scientific advisor for Universa, the managers of the two funds. The funds are designed to protect investors against Black Swan events that will impact the S&P 500 Index and the TSX 60 Index. The Horizons Universa Canadian Black Swan ETF HUT.A-T and the Horizons Universa U.S. Black Swan ETF will combine traditional exposure to equity indices with an actively-managed options strategy. Black Swan ETFs essentially consist of two components: exposure to broadly based equity indices and a pool of put and call options that utilize the Black Swan Protection Protocol. Mark Spiznagel, founder of Universa manages a fund using the protocol that saw a return in excess of 100% in 2008.

A word of caution: These Exchange Traded Funds are specialty funds that are expected to record long periods of little or no return. However, potential return is substantial if and when a Black Swan event occurs. Consider the ETFs as a form of long term investment portfolio insurance policy.

via Black swan investing using ETFs – The Globe and Mail.