The more abundant and complex the statistical data and methods used in support of a conclusion, the weaker the result. Just as in a detective novel where the person with the more elaborate alibi is most likely to be guilty. Hard results in science rest on minimal, if any, statistics.
In any activity, there is a thin line between breadth of diversification or exposure, and downright promiscuity.
John Brockman’s Edge.org is a fantastic resource for anyone interested in the cutting edge of science, technology or culture. NNT’s profile page includes a couple of videos you may not have seen.
Edge.org : People
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering, NYU-Poly; Author, The Black Swan
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB is a former derivatives trader turned researcher specializing in problems of probability and uncertainty, which includes decision-making under incomplete information and understanting. His work covers both technical and philosophical problems with probability, including issues of political stability, statistical mechanics, fragility of systems, psychological biases, and systems of ethics.
Taleb is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. Before starting a career as a belletrist-researcher in 2005, Taleb held senior trading and “quant” positions in derivatives with trading houses in New York and London and managed his own portfolio boutique. His degrees include an MBA from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from the University of Paris.
He is the author of Dynamic Hedging, Fooled by Randomness, and The Black Swan.
He considers himself an Edge Activist—a member of the “literary and empirical community of scientists-philosophers”.
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People use words for small talk and background noise; the big things they mostly express with silence.
Could the markets be setting up for another “Black Swan” event and can anti-fragility be
brought into global financial systems? BNN asks Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan.”
Click link or photo to launch video.
http://www.bnnprodown.com.edgesuite.net/2012/05/30/20120530_TC_NT.mp4
Or http://m.bnn.ca/article?itemId=689374&feedId=444
HatTip to Trevor!