Nassim Nicholas Taleb

NYU-Poly

Daniel G. Goldstein

London Business School

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming

Abstract:
   
Where the problem is not expert underestimation of randomness, but more: the tools themselves used in regression analyses and similar methods underestimate fat tails, hence the randomness in the data. We should avoid imparting psychological explanations to errors in the use of statistical methods.

[Updated: The Problem is Beyond Psychology 2012]