To prevail over untruth and myths, truth needs a mafia-style organization.
[ visit to Beijing]
To prevail over untruth and myths, truth needs a mafia-style organization. [ vi…
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Monthly Archives: October 2011
Journalists understanding of risk is so backwards that they would put the securi…
Journalists understanding of risk is so backwards that they would put the security checks after the plane ride.
My Soapbox Advice to the OWS Movement and then some « blog maverick
Shared by JohnH
This is from entrepreneur Mark Cuban, weighing in on the OWS movement!
You see, in the real business world there is always a trade off between risk, reward and the law of unintended consequences. If we have learned anything from the past 12 years it should be that black swan events happen more frequently than we like and that the law of unintended consequences has a far greater negative impact than business as usual has a positive impact.
…a simpler, more intuitive explanation
A link from NNT’s homepage.
Chapter 4. Thales’ Secret, or The Intelligence of Antifragility (pdf)
I landed early (once) — A simple heuristic to get an inheritance — Where we discuss the idea of doing instead place of walking the Great Walk — Where the philosophers’ stone was staring at us — ideas matter less than fragility
The Problem is Beyond Psychology: The Real World is More Random than Regression Analyses by Nassim Taleb, Daniel Goldstein :: SSRN
The Problem is Beyond Psychology: The Real World is More Random than Regression Analyses
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
NYU-Poly
Daniel G. Goldstein
London Business School
International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Abstract:
Where the problem is not expert underestimation of randomness, but more: the tools themselves used in regression analyses and similar methods underestimate fat tails, hence the randomness in the data. We should avoid imparting psychological explanations to errors in the use of statistical methods.
[Updated: The Problem is Beyond Psychology 2012]