Hormesis… Expressed it as a combination of options of different strikes.
Where K is the strike, K1 I expressed the health function as:
+1 C(K1) – 1.6 C(K2) +.6 C(K3)
I wonder if this chapter is clear to the general public.
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/options.pdf
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/options.pdf
www.fooledbyrandomness.com
Friends would love to discuss the following.
Hormesis in the lit. seems to lack in rigor as a phen (2nd mistake, aside from missing local convexity). It is defined by a compensatory reaction, which conflicts with evolutionary filtering (antibiotic resistance works by destroying the weak faster than the strong). So there are:
1) hormetic antifragility,
2) evolutionary antifragility (often mistaken for hormesis),
3) payoff antifragility (say, financial options).
All three like increase in randomness, but function different ways.
Nassim Taleb believes in
probabilities, not predictions, but at times it can be hard to
tell the difference. “The real Black Swan event,” he said in
June, “is that people are not rioting against the banks in
London and New York.”
Taleb saw it coming, and his well-publicized remark may be
the only reason Occupy Wall Street hasn’t been labeled a black
swan. This once-rare bird, made ubiquitous by Taleb’s best-
selling 2007 book of the same title, now appears so often after
dramatic events, such as Occupy Wall Street, that sightings of
it have become meaningless.
The Engineered and the Organic
