Shared by JohnH

HatTip to Dave Lull

He denounces “empirically blind savants,” rejects the Gaussian Belle Curve fixation, and champions a kind of mathematical or empirical skepticism.  He advances the theory of Professor Raimund Popper, who states that predicting historical events is possible if one can predict technological innovations. In a sense, the author is a Contrarian, even an Iconoclast. The Black Swan scores as it rails against the herd mentality—our need to be part of the social pattern. This, the author argues, prevents us from predicting the next Black Swan. But can we be the rugged individuals that the author asks of us? Hardly so.