Monthly Archives: January 2011

Human Accomplishment and The Black Swan – C-SPAN Video Library 2007

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Nasim Taleb-Charles Murray 200707

Charles Murray and Nassim Taleb discussed their research on interpretations of historical achievement and great human accomplishments, including the analysis of unexpected events throughout history. After their presentations they responded to audience members’ questions.

Charles Murray is the author of Human Accomplishment: The Pursuit of Excellence in the Arts and Sciences, 800 B.C. to 1950 and Nassim Taleb is the author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

(Click arrow to play audio) Nassim Taleb (only, please see original source for entire program).

Nassim Taleb | The Sunday Times

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HatTip to Dave Lull

By Mark Edmonds

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/Magazine/Regulars/article487481.ece

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author; The world’s fastest interview: 140 characters max per answer. The “world’s hottest thinker” on castigating bankers and pessimism about global recovery
Mark Edmonds. Sunday Times. London (UK): Jan 2, 2011. pg. 11

Copyright (c) Times Newspapers Limited 2011

Witter: What’s happening? And I’m not looking for aphorisms or apercu.

NT: I’m drinking coffee and playing with graphs for my new book.

Witter: Do you regard yourself as one of the most intelligent people on the planet?

NT: No. But I define intelligence as asking the right questions, looking at important matters, not solving complicated combinatorics.

Witter: Combinatorics? Might need help here.

NT: Replace combinatorics with quizzes. I think I understand the limitations of my understanding better than others we tend to call intelligent.

Witter: Can you think of a single universal aphorism for our time?

NT: We will never be safe until we accept that traditions (and heuristics) know things we don’t.

Witter: You’ve been criticised for castigating bankers. Isn’t it time that you left them alone?

NT: I would leave bankers alone when you leave the mafia and other forms of organised crime alone.

Witter: Are you still pessimistic about global recovery?

NT: The problem is not recovery, but the presence of risks in the system.

Witter: You referring to the banks?

NT: Not just the banks, but publicly listed companies with managers’ options. The markets lost 20% to 50% of their value in the past decade.

Witter: Your new book reveals you to be a know-all.

Kindly assure me otherwise.

NT: The aphorisms in it correspond to people making an assumption about things and getting it backwards.

Witter: Have you been in touch with David Cameron since he took office?

NT: Yes. I hope to see him in February.

Witter: What will you tell him?

NT: To have courage; it is what modern politicians seem to lack.

Witter: What do you do for fun?

NT: In natural habitats everything should be fun. No distinction between work and play.

Witter: You’ve done rather well out of the meltdown, haven’t you? Isn’t it crass to cash in?

NT: I find it immoral to produce a forecast unless you have something at risk.

Taleb 010311

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HatTip to Dave Lull.

CORPORATE CRIME REPORTER

Taleb says that Ronald Reagan started it.

“This is why I get along with Ralph Nader,” Taleb says. “Nader was the
first to say that the difference between Republicans and Democrats is cosmetic.”

“It is Ronald Reagan who bailed out the banks in 1983 and started this whole process.”

Reagan of the Milton Friedman free market philosophy?

“Exactly,” Taleb said. “There is something about governments that will be susceptible
to the pressure of lobbyists to bailout the big corporations.”

“Had Reagan not bailed out Citibank in 1983, we would not be here.”

Where would we be?

“If the government didn’t bail out Detroit and the banks, we would have a
better Detroit and better banks. Smaller and more competitive companies.”

“People forget that much of the growth of companies came from debt building.”

“Small companies are the energetic ones. The energy and innovation comes from small
companies in California. And these companies neither go into debt nor do they
get bailed out.”

Okay, so government shouldn’t be bailing out the big banks.

But what about cracking down on corporate crime?

“If two adults want to speculate, they should be free to do so, conditional on society
not bailing them out,” Taleb says.

“The government should be there to enforce the rule of no socialization of losses.
You want to make sure the banks are never big enough to take these risks at
the expense of society.”

“The rule is as follows – if you want a bailout, you are under our regulation.
And we want you small. And we don’t want you to take speculative risks.
In other words, you are a utility. And you obey our rules.”

“If you are not to be bailed out, then you can do what you want, providing that
you don’t harm the public.”