Monthly Archives: November 2010

The only discussion of stochastic arts (nonrationalistic-trial-and-error) I can find in history, so far, στόχαστικὴ τέχνη, a very brief one, in Alexander of Aphrodisias, of all things, a commentator on Aristotle.http://www.amazon.com/Quaestiones-2-16-3-15-Ancient-Commentators-Aristotle/dp/0715626159/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1290425843&sr=1-1See Veronique Boudon, Katerina Ierodiakonou, etc.

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The only discussion of stochastic arts (nonrationalistic-trial-and-error) I can find in history, so far, στόχαστικὴ τέχνη, a very brief one, in Alexander of Aphrodisias, of all things, a commentator on Aristotle.

http://www.amazon.com/Quaestiones-2-16-3-15-Ancient-Commentators-Aristotle/dp/0715626159/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1290425843&sr=1-1

See Veronique Boudon, Katerina Ierodiakonou, etc.


Amazon.com: Quaestiones 2.16-3.15 (Ancient Commentators on Aristotle) (9780715626153): Of Aphrodisia
www.amazon.com
Amazon.com: Quaestiones 2.16-3.15 (Ancient Commentators on Aristotle) (9780715626153): Of Aphrodisias Alexander, Alexander of Aphrodisias, R.W. Sharples: Books

Discussion of AntiFragility at Columbia U (NY) today (11:40-12:30); not really open to public but can take a few who crash it by showing up at 11:25 AM, Address, Warren Hall, NE corner of Amsterdam Avenue and 115th Street. Plan to improvise and discuss convexities. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1669317

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Discussion of AntiFragility at Columbia U (NY) today (11:40-12:30); not really open to public but can take a few who crash it by showing up at 11:25 AM, Address, Warren Hall, NE corner of Amsterdam Avenue and 115th Street.
Plan to improvise and discuss convexities.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1669317


SSRN-Antifragility, Robustness, and Fragility, Inside the ‘Black Swan’ Domain by Nassim Taleb
papers.ssrn.com
SSRN-Antifragility, Robustness, and Fragility, Inside the ‘Black Swan’ Domain by Nassim Taleb

Time to Short Treasuries Yet? — Seeking Alpha

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Every Ponzi Fails in Time

In February Nassim Taleb remarked that, “every single human being” should short US Treasuries. Mr. Black Swan may have been a little early, but he’s right, of course. Treasuries are a bubble of epic proportions. And when that bubble pops, a lot of money will be made on the short side. For retail investors, that means using ETFs like TBT, which shorts long-dated treasuries (with leverage).

But getting the timing right on this trade has proven tricky. Bond prices just keep going up, pushing yields to absurdly low levels. Investors who bought ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) back in February, when Mr. Taleb made his “every single human” remarks, are down about 20% on their investment. Yield on 10-year treasuries has fallen to 2.8%. In April, the same bond was yielding 4%. In 2000, before the tech bubble burst, the 10-year was paying a healthy 6.7%.