nntaleb: Added derivations of why large will eventually break (& why economists are largely charlatans); www.fooledbyrandomness.com/OxfordBTLecture
nntaleb: Added derivations of why large will eventually break (& why economists are largely charlatans); www.fooledbyrandomness.com/OxfordBTLecture
The Black Swan = consumer, corporate, derivative, CDO, public and private debt of all nations plus the trillions in off book liabilities of Banks/Financial institutions along with the Trillions of dollars/Euros and other currencies (Q/E) that was created from nothing to replace the loss of consumer spending. The Black Swan (worldwide debt) has been identified and is now preparing to land which will bring a total disruption of the worldwide financial system.
In 1991/1992 the world was sliding into a depression… the twin tower/Afghanistan/Iraq war. (Black Swan) delayed the financial collapse.
The 2007/2008 fraudulent Liar loans, financial institutions derivatives, CDO and packaged liar loans delayed the financial collapse The U.S.A. Consumer was encouraged to lend and spend money they did not have and now they can not pay it back and the cycle continues to worsen by the day.
In 2008/2009/2010 the worldwide central banks flooded the financial institutions with money to “invest” in the stock markets of the world to prevent them from collapsing. This gave a false perception of wealth and recovery. This was and is the wrong approach. If you gave each consumer $100,000.00 dollars to purchase merchandise instead of giving it to corrupt financial institutions the unemployment would be at 5%.
The Black Swan has been identified, when the Euro crashes along with Europe and Asia, the dollar will soon follow when no country will purchase our debt.
In 2012/? The depression will force a complete revamping of the worldwide financial system. Unfortunately 95% of the citizens of these countries will bear the brunt of this collapse.
You are predicting a Black Swan? I thought by their nature, Black Swans are unpredictable.
Thanks.
Bala