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An older clip but fun to recap from 2005.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is not afraid to say “I don’t know.” In fact, he’s proud of his ignorance. A mathematician, philosopher and hedge-fund manager all in one iconoclastic package, Taleb demonstrates the wisdom in admitting the limitations of our knowledge.
Mentioned in talk:
The Wit and Wisdom of Yogi Berra
From the turkey's perspective, this was unexpected. Sometimes you just can't use past observed data – even a lot of it – to project future events:
I obviously can't take credit for this brilliant chart: the idea comes from Nicholas Nassim Taleb's brilliant book, The Black Swan. Taleb himself got the idea from Bertrand Russell's analysis of a chicken.
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Links above to full post.
Being the day before Thanksgiving here in America, I thought I would recount a wonderful story from Nassim Taleb’s outstanding book, The Black Swan:
"Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race “looking out for its best interests,” as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.”
Taleb goes on to add this: “Think of the feeding again: What can a turkey learn about what is in store for it tomorrow from the events of yesterday? A lot, perhaps, but certainly a little less than it thinks, and it is just that “little less” that may make all the difference.”
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Tucked away on NNT’s website, you might not have noticed these.
(Theseare not book Reviews, but research using the ideas as a starting point).
CURRENT ACADEMIC PAPERS BUILDING ON THE IDEA
Quality,Risk and the Taleb Quadrants IBM Quality & Productivity Research,2009, RonS. Kenett and Charles S. Tapiero
A Black Swan in the Money Market, NBER WorkingPaper No. W13943, Rock Center for Corporate Governance Working Paper No. 33
John B. Taylor and JohnC. Williams, Stanford University and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Black Swan or Fat Turkey? BusinessStrategy Review, Vol. 19, Issue 3, pp. 34-39, Autumn 2008 Geoff Booth and Elias Mazzawi
Italian Operational Requirement and SmallBanks: The Black Swan Bancaria No. 03-2009 ,Gianfausto Salvadori , Simona Cosma and Giampaolo Gabbi
Nickels versus Black Swans: Reputation,Trading Strategies and Asset Prices Yale ICF Working Paper No. 08-26Steven G. Malliaris and HongjunYan CYale University – International Center for Finance andYale University – International Center for Finance
Swan-Upmanship BusinessStrategy Review, Vol. 20, Issue 1, pp. 58-61, Spring 2009, Des Dearlove
The FinancialMeltdown of 2008: Causes and Symptoms Saur Vaishwanar
ENGINEERING
Strategies formanaging the Consequences of Black Swan Events, AvinashM Nafday, Leadership and Management in Engineering,October 2009
INSURANCE
Black Swans orBlack Holes, Gerry Smedinghoff, Contingencies,May-Jun 2008